That is far beyond the Paris agreementвЂ™s goal to limit warming to 1.5вЂ“2вЂ‰вЊ. Six in ten of the respondents said that they expect the world to warm by at least 3вЂ‰вЊ by the end of the century, compared with what conditions were like before the Industrial Revolution. Their answers suggest strong scepticism that governments will markedly slow the pace of global warming, despite political promises made by international leaders as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. NatureВ conducted an anonymous survey of the 233 living IPCC authors last month and received responses from 92 scientists-about 40% of the group.

Many other leading climate researchers share AriasвЂ™s concerns about the future.

That assessment, which makes clear that the world is running out of time to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, will figure prominently in climate negotiations over the next two weeks at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, UK. вЂњMy answer was no,вЂќ says Arias, a researcher at the University of Antioquia in MedellГn, who was one of the 234 scientists who wrote a climate-science reportВ published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August (see go./3pjupro). With such an uncertain future, she thought hard several years ago about whether to have children. She isnвЂ™t confident that international leaders will slow global warming or that her own government can handle the expected fallout, such as mass migrations and civil unrest over rising inequality. Shifting rain patterns threaten water supplies in her home city of MedellГn, Colombia, while rising sea levels endanger the countryвЂ™s coastline. As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesnвЂ™t need to look far to see the world changing.

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